ASX trading

I'd figure I would post some of my current positions in the Australian Sonray trading competition. One thing which is very interesting about Australian equities is there low pricing - resembling the otcbb warzone. However, they do act alot differently and many average one million trades per day creating very nice liquidity.

p.s I coulden't figure out how to resize charts, but you can click on them to get a clearer picture

















My current portfolio(remember - simulated):

distribution day but nice charts

We've logged a distribution day on the indicies, however it closed in the upper half of the candlestick - indication of support. The nasdaq held its 200dma. Moreover, I'm noticing some nice charts out there with good fundamentals like IFOX,JPM,FMD, FSH, GIGM, DTV etc

amazing

Totally unexpected. The market made a huge gain, especially on the NASDAQ while commoditiy prices fell. Huge gain with huge volume. This was like a follow-through day and has reset the distribution day count. Trend is upwards but I'm apprehensive.

Market flush

The market is correcting on heavier volume, today we saw some heavy volume across the indices and some divergence, which might be flagging instituional churning. In the context of this 2 day downtrend it makes sense.

I've taken on no new longs especially with these two consecutive distribution days, besides that nothing noteworthy is showing up on my scans and most breakouts are breaking down.

Taking into account the 21 day overdue follow-through, rally on light volume and then a heavy volume pullback with a lighter volume rally to me is foreshadowing the end of this rally... personally I'm not going shorts until we undercut the follow-through day. Even then positions will remain small.


Night.

humbled by the market

I've been shaken out of two of my longs both costing me %8 of my portfolio. Another distribution day has been logged on the indices.

Market sustains heavy selling

The Nasdaq, down -1.72%, has reversed on its light volume rally with volume coming in above average levels, indicating institutional involvement. The SP-500 followed suit with a -%1 drop.

I'm almost stopped out of my current longs, excluding ALSK, flagging the likely downtrend this will take us into.

Went long MEH and VRGY last night. Market barely did anything today. 1 distribution day.

still trending upwards

Light rally, the question is sustainability

We have picked up some volume, which is an improvement. However, volume is still below the 50 day moving average. If we get further upside with better volume action it is quite likely that nice charts will begin to form.

Currently long ALSK(since 08/17/06).
I'm alittle aprehensive to go long without further confirmation from other charts.


Watchlist:
GEX - be careful, these type of stocks come down fast and quick.

21st day follow through(a few days ago :P)

we got a follow-through, albeit on light volume and very late. It's been backed up by some heavy up days the past few days and today little progress on some higher volume(which is negative). The path of least resistence is now up.

Lots of cool industries moving in reaction to the 'rally'. However, I'm still feeling abit unsure especially with a leader like HANS coming down.

Additionally, I recall reading that follow-through days after the 7th days usually mean weak rallies but again trend = up(for now).

Going long:
ALSK

WATCHLIST:
KNOL
TWTC(very nice base, however the breakout was not on heavy volume so i'd like to watch it -still possible to go long after breakout of the high of the base @ 18.83)


btw i'll be comitting alot more soon to this blog...

NASDAQ leading a nasty downtrend

NASDAQ lead this distribution day. It has undercut the intraday of the first rally day confirming further downtrend.

Selling NGA tonight at a loss. It was a mistake buying both SIMC and NGA, ugly stocks in an ugly market.

Just sold SIMC.

It was a mistake buying the stock, it is way overextended and has based for only one month with a symmetrical triangle. %383 above 200-dma.

I'm out at a small loss. I will have to see what happens if it goes back up b/c I just dont like these triangle patterns right now and am not so great at reading them.

tonights watchlist

I'm likely to be buying SIMC, NGA tonight


WATCHLIST:
KNOL, SIMC, NGA

We are now in a confirmed rally

We get the follow-through on the 12th day, albeit quiet a late one. I'm covering my shorts tommorow(BDY, EL). Metals and Oil are leading this rally.

I dont know if this is an 'oversold' bounce or whatever, all I know is the market is rallying therefore it would be wise to go with it.

However, this does not mean go long if there are no QUALITY longs - because frankly I dont see any.

WATCHLIST:
KNOL
GPIC
ECL

Short

wForgot to add I shorted BDY 06/26/06 on break of 200dma with high volume showing up in the mourning @ intraday.


So positions:
ELY - Gain %14.43
BDY - Gain %3.85

laterall movement

Lateral movement here. Nothing much to talk about. Still same position as previous post.


Leaving with a good quote from an article by alan farley "Bear markets shake out the infrastructure and realign prevailing psychology".

I'm not long anything. Wont be taking new longs.
I have covered TTM, IPS a few days ago. Still holding ELY.

Currently developing a short scan for tcnet, will post it soon and want any addition or tweaks to be added in comments.

This is dodgy

Nasdaq up +1.62%, the dow up +0.95% and the S&P500 up +0.97%.

All moved up on a low-medium level accumulation day. However, no strong breakouts have manifested as a result.

I point to my previous post where I claimed that I was a little confused because we saw some growth industries moving up. But now I realise that they must be too tired and still correcting b/c otherwise we would be seeing these breakouts.

I dont see how a market could move up without any breakouts in strong charts, which symbolise leadership.


Tonight I have my debuton ball - and will be away two nights sleeping.

Lafayette - out

Rally outlook

Yesterday rally made a move down on heavy volume, keep in mind it was quadruple witching. Still I'll count it as a distribution day for the rally. Today it moved down on lighter volume,

I'm alittle stumped about this rally because i'm seeing more reactions by more growth industries to it.
Internet service providers, Diversified Computer systems, Semi's... Although there respictive industry charts dont look good -if they can be judged in a manner similar to big indexes?


Chart breakouts are shit right now. That does explain alot.

OK. All of this was just my 'outlook' on the rally - testing my skills. thinking blah blah but lets get to the point...

I'm bearish until a follow-through and good looking breakouts coming from strong industries.


Thingi mebob of the random interval:
Quadruple witching:
A day on which contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures (SSF) all expire.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp

4th*corrected rally attempt

Ok. This 4th rally attempt is looking good(I said 3 before, but counting the climactic looking day I commented on it's 4). I'll be back later with market commentry as I have to rush to school now...


Ok back from school and now in a rush to go meet some friends... anyhoo It was an interesting day in the markets.. Firstly some of my classmates have called a crash right here --- these guys dont trade.

You have lots of leaders reacting best to this rally. Tech is up there too along with metals again. I dont know what to say about gold and haven't had time to check its breakouts but i'll be back with some more data.

Some people are saying the volume is way weak on this thing. True it is realtively smaller then the downtrend volume, but volume can pickup later. Keep an eye on volume price action next two days. We are looking for a follow through on the 4th day now. Oh yeah --> My shorts have reacted the 'best' to this rally too, they all jumped %5 plus where as in the previous rally it was much lower. Cheerio

Support

Support and climactic selling. Nothing else to add...

Dow rally failure. NASDAQ hitting 7-month low.

The attempted Dow rally is dead. SP-500 & NASDAQ still alive and nearing the end - once they breach first the first rally days absolute intraday low. Both have suffered one or two distribution days while attempting to rally and are into their 10th rally day.

The fact that the DJ-30 is a defensive index and has failed it's rally suggests to me that the other indexes will soon follow suit.


Below is an image of industry groups and their action since the market top(click to enlarge) - Notice the amount of defensive industries holding themselves through the decline and even advancing... Also what are closed end fund- debt/ debt securities in relation to a declining economy?




Thingi Mebob of the Random Interval(Cant do this everyday!):
When nearing a market top it can be observed that laggards begin moving up. Quote from IBD "When the old dogs start barking it's time to get out" - or somthing like that :P

Why? Investors late to a bull market are looking for cheap stocks. This lifts up laggards and the otcbb warzone stocks.

During the 2000 internet bubble the following was observed.

"Excessive OTC: BB Volume

There are times when it seems like the herd is buying anything that's not nailed down -- regardless of price or quality. By the time the frenzy works its way down to the least-warranted, lowest-value, nonreporting companies -- the bulletin board stocks -- it's all over but the crying.

In an ordinary market, most of us never go anywhere near this junk. So it's worth noting when these micro-minis are jumping up on huge volume. It means that money has run out of credible places to go."

Taken from http://www.thestreet.com/comment/cfeatures/1242603.html


Want to see this in a recent example? Look at ERS climax run, and look at all the low-priced GOLD stocks during this time period.